Thoughts on Comdex 2000
November 15, 2000
I never imagined that Comdex would provide relief but, in
this Year of The Chad, it does. The noisy trade show took
my mind off such dark thoughts as a possible suit against the
INS for unacceptably slow processing of the Gassée family's
US citizenship application, for example...
Just before Comdex, a Gentle Reader wrote strong words to
the effect that he had had to pick himself up off the floor
laughing after browsing our Web site and reading BeIA material.
He said -- all caveats and apologies hereby tendered -- Who
needs this? No one will buy a device just to browse the Net.
Fair comment. We've seen how some pioneers have fared, from
the iToaster to the i-Opener; one can understand the basis of
our Gentle Reader's hilarity. The gentleman was charitable
enough not to add Microsoft's weight to his argument -- the
WebTV's slow and very expensive progress (hundreds of
millions of dollars sunk, so far) could have made his point
final, an argument as difficult to push around as a sumo
wrestler.
On the other hand, interest in "connected devices" (another
name for Internet Appliances) keeps gaining weight. Consumer
electronics giants and phone companies, from Panasonic to
Nokia, are all showing various permutations of mobile and
home devices rendering Internet content in some form. One
can argue that we've seen loud proclamations before that lead
nowhere in practice, such as Larry Ellison and Sun's NC. I
have two comments on this point: 1) some Internet Appliances
are indeed the implementation of Larry's NC; and 2) no one
really argues that the Internet will be everywhere. The real
argument is when and how.
Today, the PC is the Net navigation and rendering device.
This is changing -- which is not to say that PCs will disappear.
We're moving from the PC as the universal device to a more
rational segmentation into task-specific devices, just as we
observe in every other walk of life, from transportation to
entertainment. Bill Gates made similar points in his customary
Comdex address, while demonstrating a Windows-powered tablet.
He recognized long ago that we're moving from a PC-centric world
view to an Internet-centric one. The DOJ might argue about
Microsoft's way of converting to the new world view, but no one
disputes the validity of Bill's "Pearl Harbor" speech five years
ago.
Speaking of The Chairman, we were flattered that he spent time
in the Internet Appliances pavilion, looking closely at the
various BeIA-powered devices we were showing. While this makes
some of us a little nervous, we must also tip our hat to the
person and company culture he created. How many CEOs, or
Chairpersons, go around Comdex like Bill Gates and personally
look at the competition and ask questions?
We also had a suite at the Venetian Hotel adjoining the Sands
Convention Center, close enough to the natural flow of traffic
and quiet enough for discussions with our business partners. Of
all the appliances we displayed, one had visitors making a
bee-line straight across the room: a prototype tablet powered
by a low-power processor -- that is all we can describe at this
time. We can say that it provides a very attractive way of
browsing the Net, rendering multimedia content, providing
untethered information and entertainment. It shows the
emotional -- and economic -- impact of wireless broadband at
home.
How and when the Internet will be everywhere remain important
questions, but Comdex provides a better perception of the way
technologies are converging to make Internet Appliances a
convenient and fun reality.