Transfer of Power
January 17, 2001
Two years ago, Steve Sakoman and I went to CES. For the most
part, it was a boring succession of nearly identical booths
"manned" by bored individuals. "This year, the fashionable face
plate color is titanium" is only a slightly oversimplified summary
of the event.
There were two exceptions, however. One was the time-warp
section for high-end audio, featuring "premium" Russian 12AX7
triodes and oxygen-free, oriented crystals with specially braided
copper cables for a markedly better sound -- at least at the cash
register. The other interesting booth was the Microsoft PocketPC
display, with a videotaped demo that was probably a rehearsal for
the anti-trust trial. While the taped rolled, the demo-meister made
the right gestures on the non-functional device under a camera
supposedly feeding the display above his head. It was a good demo.
This year the cab drivers, always well-connected, complained
that COMDEX attendance was down from previous years. CES, on the
other hand, was up. I don't know what happened to the Russian
triodes but, yes, the main show was much, much more interesting
than ever before. It seemed as if the financial and emotional
energy had moved from COMDEX to CES, and the creative energy and
investments were moving from the PC to the consumer electronics
space. To put that another way, it appeared that consumer devices
were reaping the dividends from two decades of technology and
infrastructure investments in the PC space.
We were very happy, of course, to see our work for Sony's eVilla
come to light. eVilla, along with another BeIA-powered appliance
from Qubit received awards at the show -- a good way to start 2001.
And another reason to remind ourselves that we still have much to
do and much to prove. We also introduced our Home Audio Reference
Platform, HARP, for entertainment applications. The Sony booth was
swamped and eVilla got great reviews. We had many interesting
conversations around our presence at the Real Networks display, and
our private suite at the Bellagio was booked for meetings all day
long. Still, if the show's overall context hadn't shown a transfer
of power and energy from the PC business to the consumer electronics
space, I wouldn't be as happy.
For instance, it now looks as if home networking, with or,
preferably, without wires, is already achieving much better
market penetration than HDTV. MP3 devices are proliferating in all
sorts of places and shapes, from the car to the basement, in a
kind of "entertainment furnace." Put the two together -- networking
and MP3 -- and you have wireless media streaming inside your home.
If anyone questioned the transfer of power, seeing Bill Gates on
stage with a professional wrestler and Intel's CEO Craig Barrett
introducing an MP3 player was enough to dissipate all doubt.
The Wintel CEOs are both convinced that consumer electronics are
the next mother lode. But will they achieve the kind of dominance
they enjoy in the PC market in this new space? The exercise is left
to proud companies who've observed how Microsoft and Intel managed
to siphon most of the profits from the PC makers. The years to come
promise to be exciting.
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